Urad Prices Jump 20% in a Month as Supply Tightens Across Origins

All-India average wholesale mandi prices of urad have climbed roughly 20% over the past month, according to data collated by the Agriculture Ministry on its UPAG portal — making black matpe the standout performer in an otherwise mixed pulse market.

The rally is not a single-factor story. B Krishnamurthy of Four P International, a Chennai-based importer, attributes the move to a combination of a widening demand-supply gap, a rebound in consumer demand after a period of relative softness, sharply higher prices in key origin countries Myanmar and Brazil, a weaker Indian rupee, and mounting anxiety over deficit monsoon rains denting kharif sowing prospects.

Urad sowing as of July 17 stood at 13.51 lakh hectares — 6% below the same point last year — adding a forward-looking supply concern to an already tight spot market. Traders operating hand-to-mouth after suffering losses in previous years have not been building buffer stocks, amplifying the price impact of each incremental tightening in supply.

India's urad production declined to 21.60 lakh tonne in 2025-26 from 22.42 lakh tonne the year before, according to available crop estimates — a shortfall that has left the domestic pipeline lean heading into the current kharif season.

The pressure on supplies was compounded by an unusual distribution pattern in the rabi crop. Krishnamurthy noted that the Andhra Pradesh rabi crop suffered a yield loss of 15–20%, and the remaining produce was purchased by six to seven northern states — an atypical buying pattern that effectively thinned stocks available in traditional consuming markets.

El Niño conditions have begun to assert themselves this season, according to Krishnamurthy, adding weather-related risk to an already strained balance sheet. With traders reluctant to carry inventory given losses sustained over the past couple of years, even modest demand upticks are translating into outsized price moves.

The global supply backdrop for urad is as challenging as the domestic picture. Rahul Chauhan of IGrain India noted that trade in origin countries is well aware of India's crop shortfall and is pricing accordingly.

Myanmar, India's largest supplier, has seen its 2026 crop devastated by yellow mosaic virus disease. Trade estimates cited by Krishnamurthy put the Myanmar crop at no more than 7 lakh tonne this year, down from approximately 1 million tonne (10 lakh tonne) for the 2025 crop — a year-on-year decline of 30% by trade reckoning.

Brazil has delivered a second blow. What the trade initially projected at 4.5 lakh tonne is now feared to have fallen to just 3 lakh tonne, on account of adverse climate during the growing season.

The impact is visible in CNF quotes. Data from the India Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA) shows:

• Fair average quality Myanmar black matpe (July delivery, Chennai): up from $825/tonne on June 15 to $935/tonne
• Superior quality: up from $905/tonne to $1,030/tonne over the same period

India's urad import volumes have not kept pace with demand. Data from the Department of Commerce, compiled by IPGA, shows that urad arrivals during January–May 2026 totalled 2.93 lakh tonne — a notable decline from 3.83 lakh tonne in the same period of the previous year.

Myanmar remained the dominant source, contributing 2.35 lakh tonne of the January–May import total. Brazil was a distant second at 37,780 tonne, followed by Thailand at 11,228 tonne and other origins at 8,124 tonne.

The year-on-year drop in imports is particularly significant given that it coincides with tighter domestic availability. With origin prices rising steeply and the rupee weaker, importers face the double burden of paying more in dollar terms and absorbing unfavourable exchange rates — dynamics that are likely to keep landed costs elevated in the near term.