Cardamom Exports Lose Momentum as Price Surge Spooks Importers
A sharp domestic price rally is dampening India's cardamom export enquiries, while a deficient monsoon and soil pests threaten to push the new-crop estimate down to 33,000 tonnes from an earlier 40,000-tonne projection.
The short answer
India's cardamom exports are slowing as domestic prices climb to ₹3,000–₹3,300 per kg, prompting overseas importers to defer bulk orders and buy in smaller, more frequent lots. On the supply side, a weak June–July monsoon, soil pest damage, and the looming threat of an El Niño-induced drought have cut the new-crop estimate to 33,000 tonnes — well below both the earlier forecast and last season's output of 37,733 tonnes. With Guatemala's crop expected to rise sharply, global supply may improve somewhat, but the overall cardamom market remains in deficit, keeping prices firm in the near term.
Export headwinds
Rising Prices Drive Importers to the Sidelines
India's cardamom export momentum has stalled, and the culprit is not a collapse in demand but a dramatic rise in domestic prices. Average market rates have climbed to ₹3,000–₹3,300 per kg, up from the earlier band of ₹2,700–₹2,900 per kg — a move sharp enough to unsettle procurement strategies across key importing markets.
According to SKM Dhanavanthan, a cardamom exporter based in Bodinayakanur, overseas buyers are increasingly choosing smaller, more frequent shipments rather than building the large inventories typical of a confident market. Fresh order enquiries have fallen noticeably, with importers pausing to assess whether the advancing monsoon will improve new-crop prospects and trigger a price correction before they commit to larger volumes.
On the retail front, elevated prices are also reshaping domestic buying behaviour. Bulk purchases have slowed, and consumers are gravitating towards smaller pack sizes — a behavioural shift that signals price sensitivity even among end-users rather than just trade intermediaries.
Crop outlook
Monsoon Deficit and Pest Damage Slash New-Crop Estimates
The supply picture for Indian cardamom has deteriorated meaningfully since the season began. S.B. Prabhakar, a planter in Idukki, says the picking season is underway but that deficient monsoon rainfall in June and July has already inflicted significant damage — causing droppings and poor setting across the growing belt.
Estimated crop losses currently stand at 20–25 per cent, and Prabhakar warns this figure could worsen if August also delivers below-normal rainfall. Compounding weather stress, soil pests — particularly Root Grub and Nematodes — are reported to be rampant across plantations, further impairing crop setting.
As a result, the projected output for the ensuing season has been revised down sharply:
- New-crop estimate: ~33,000 tonnes
- Earlier projection: 40,000 tonnes
- Last season's actual output (2025-26): 37,733 tonnes
While two days of heavy rainfall have provided some temporary relief, a dry spell with high temperatures is forecast to return from mid-August, leaving the crop vulnerable once again.
We are clearly witnessing hesitation in price negotiations, with many buyers delaying purchases as they wait to understand whether the upcoming rains will influence market prices.
Demand signals
Upcountry Buying Set to Revive, But Market Remains in Deficit
Despite the near-term export slowdown, not all demand indicators are negative. Prabhakar expects upcountry demand within India to pick up through August, which could provide some domestic price support even as export enquiries remain muted.
Looking at the global supply equation, Guatemala — the other major cardamom producer — is forecast to sharply expand its output, with production expected to reach 25,000–28,000 tonnes in the coming season, up from roughly 17,000 tonnes last year. While this incremental supply could moderate some global price pressure, industry observers note that the overall cardamom market remains in deficit, which is expected to keep prices firm in the short to medium term.
The longer-term risk is more structural: Prabhakar flagged that El Niño is already influencing the monsoon, and a drought could materialise as early as 2027, potentially creating a more severe supply crisis than what the market is currently navigating.
What to watch
August Rains and El Niño Shadow Are the Key Variables
For traders and exporters, the market's next move hinges on two factors: August rainfall in the cardamom-growing districts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, and the trajectory of the El Niño cycle.
If rainfall remains deficient through August, crop losses — currently pegged at 20–25 per cent — could widen further, hardening prices and potentially prolonging the export slowdown into the next quarter. Conversely, sustained good rains could improve crop setting, rebuild importer confidence, and encourage a return to normal procurement volumes.
The industry is also watching Guatemala closely. A significant ramp-up in Guatemalan output would provide partial relief to the global supply deficit, but given the scale of India's projected shortfall — nearly 7,000 tonnes below the initial forecast — it is unlikely to fully offset domestic production losses.
For now, SKM Dhanavanthan's assessment remains the market's prevailing mood: price negotiations are hesitant, buyers are waiting, and the monsoon holds the deciding vote.
Why it matters
For Indian cardamom growers, traders, and exporters, the convergence of a weather-hit domestic crop, elevated prices, and cautious overseas buyers creates a delicate balancing act: higher prices bolster farm revenues in the short run but risk ceding long-term market share to Guatemala, whose production is forecast to jump from 17,000 to 25,000–28,000 tonnes. Policymakers and the spice trade alike should monitor monsoon performance through August closely, given that further rainfall deficits could push crop losses beyond the current 20–25 per cent estimate and deepen the supply deficit heading into 2027.
Frequently asked
- Why are India's cardamom exports slowing down?
- Overseas importers are deferring bulk orders because domestic cardamom prices have risen sharply to ₹3,000–₹3,300 per kg from ₹2,700–₹2,900 per kg. Buyers are opting for smaller, more frequent purchases while waiting for monsoon clarity and potential price correction.
- What is the new cardamom crop estimate and why has it fallen?
- The new-crop estimate has been revised to approximately 33,000 tonnes, down from an earlier projection of 40,000 tonnes. The revision reflects a deficient monsoon in June and July, which caused droppings and poor setting, along with widespread soil pest damage from Root Grub and Nematodes. Last season's final output was 37,733 tonnes.
- How does Guatemala's production affect the global cardamom market?
- Guatemala's cardamom output is expected to rise to 25,000–28,000 tonnes in the coming season, up from 17,000 tonnes last year. While this increase offers some global supply relief, the overall cardamom market remains in deficit, which is expected to keep prices firm in the short to medium term.
- What is the longer-term risk facing India's cardamom sector?
- Beyond the current season, industry observers warn that El Niño is already impacting the monsoon, and a drought could emerge as early as 2027. This threatens to create a more severe production and price crisis than what the market is currently dealing with.
Source
This report summarises and analyses coverage from The Hindu BusinessLine — Agri Business. The analysis and India context are IndianAgri's own.