Record Imports Drive India's Cotton Opening Stocks to All-Time High of 93.59 Lakh Bales for 2026-27

India's cotton closing stocks for the crop year ending September 2026 are now estimated at 93.59 lakh bales (of 170 kg each), according to the Cotton Association of India (CAI). That figure is 38 lakh bales higher than the previous year's closing position and will become the opening stock for the new crop year beginning October 2026 — a 68% jump over the 55.59 lakh bales that opened 2025-26.

The CAI has simultaneously revised upward its 2025-26 production estimate by 2 lakh bales to 339 lakh bales, following higher pressing data from Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. This follows a 3-lakh-bale upward revision the previous month that had taken the estimate to 337 lakh bales. Despite firming supply, the dominant story remains the import-driven build-up in inventories.

CAI Crop Committee Chairman Atul S. Ganatra squarely attributed the record closing stocks to two consecutive years of extraordinary import volumes. Cotton imports in 2025-26 are estimated at 62 lakh bales — a level India has never reached in a single year. For context, the country's annual imports over the previous two to three decades averaged just 15–20 lakh bales.

The step-up began in 2024-25, when imports climbed to 41 lakh bales — itself an outlier at the time. Of the 62 lakh bales projected for 2025-26, 54 lakh bales had already arrived by end-July, with a further 8 lakh bales expected through September. Imports currently enter India duty-free, with the zero-duty window in place until end-October 2026 — a policy that has clearly incentivised aggressive procurement by mills seeking cheaper global fibre.

On the demand side, CAI has held its domestic consumption estimate steady at 348 lakh bales for 2025-26 — around 29 lakh bales more than the 319 lakh bales consumed the previous year, reflecting robust mill activity. Cumulative consumption through end-July already stood at 290 lakh bales.

Cotton exports, however, are moving in the opposite direction. The CAI estimates outbound shipments for the year at 15 lakh bales, down roughly 3 lakh bales from the 18 lakh bales exported in 2024-25. Around 12.25 lakh bales had been exported by end-July. The combination of higher domestic consumption, surging imports, and a modest production increase has rendered India a net importer at scale — a structural shift that will define market dynamics well into the next season.

Despite the prospect of record opening inventories, cotton prices in India are currently on a firming trend, tracking global price cues and supported by domestic demand. Prices of cotton sold by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) rose ₹200 per candy (of 356 kg) on Tuesday, August 11. Over the preceding two weeks, CCI cotton prices had strengthened by ₹1,400 per candy in total.

A potential delay in the arrival of the new kharif crop — linked to delayed sowing — is adding a near-term bullish element to sentiment. Cotton acreage in the ongoing kharif season is estimated at over 106 lakh hectares, broadly in line with last year's planted area. Whether prices can sustain this momentum once the new crop begins arriving will depend heavily on the pace of fresh arrivals and any policy changes to the import duty regime post-October.