India's Wheat Consumption to Outpace Production by 2035, Ethanol Output to More Than Double: OECD-FAO

India's wheat production is forecast to climb from an average of 1,137.84 lakh tonnes in 2023-25 to 1,350.49 lakh tonnes by 2035 — a meaningful gain in absolute terms. But consumption is projected to keep pace and then edge ahead, rising from 1,124.76 lakh tonnes to 1,353.37 lakh tonnes over the same period, meaning domestic demand will marginally exceed supply by the end of the outlook window.

The OECD-FAO report credits higher yields and modest area expansion for India's output growth, noting that India alone will contribute roughly 29% of the increase in global wheat production through 2035. Yet because population growth and wheat's status as a dietary staple continue to fuel demand, the report estimates India and Pakistan together will account for nearly one-third of the rise in global wheat consumption.

This dynamic is already visible in trade projections: wheat exports are expected to fall sharply from 2.58 lakh tonnes to just 93 thousand tonnes, while imports hold roughly steady at around 111 thousand tonnes — confirming India's transition toward a more inward-facing wheat economy.

The rice story is the mirror image of wheat. Production is projected to increase from 1,461.69 lakh tonnes to 1,711.62 lakh tonnes by 2035, with domestic consumption rising at a slower pace — from 1,213.67 lakh tonnes to 1,352.21 lakh tonnes — leaving a substantial and growing surplus for export.

Exports are forecast to surge from 202.06 lakh tonnes to 368.93 lakh tonnes, cementing India's position as the world's pre-eminent rice exporter. The report projects India will account for more than half of the increase in global rice production and around 45% of global rice exports by 2035.

Area expansion is a key differentiator: while rice acreage is projected to shrink in China, Vietnam, Brazil and Pakistan, India's harvested area is expected to expand, offsetting losses elsewhere. Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and the United States will remain significant exporters but none is expected to approach India's volumes. Rice imports are expected to remain negligible throughout the outlook period.

India's biofuel ambitions are reflected starkly in the OECD-FAO numbers. Ethanol production is projected to more than double — from 9.12 billion litres in 2023-25 to 19.19 billion litres by 2035 — with fuel-use of ethanol climbing from 7.6 billion litres to 18.56 billion litres. Biodiesel output is also set to expand sharply, from 44.8 crore litres to 1.06 billion litres.

The primary feedstock for this growth is sugarcane, and the report flags a consequential trade-off: a rising share of cane is expected to be diverted to ethanol, reducing the proportion processed into sugar.

Sugar production is still projected to increase — from 297.44 lakh tonnes to 359.27 lakh tonnes — while sugarcane output is forecast to rise sharply from 3,880.83 lakh tonnes to 5,633.87 lakh tonnes. But domestic sugar consumption is expected to outpace production, climbing to 367.56 lakh tonnes, flipping India from a net sugar exporter toward a more balanced position — exports are projected to fall to 13.33 lakh tonnes while imports edge up to 24.35 lakh tonnes.

India's structural dependence on imported vegetable oils is expected to intensify over the next decade, even as domestic oilseed production expands. Vegetable oil output is forecast to grow from 123.19 lakh tonnes to 150.88 lakh tonnes, but consumption is projected to rise faster — from 294.70 lakh tonnes to 359.95 lakh tonnes — widening the supply gap. Vegetable oil imports are consequently projected to climb from 170.40 lakh tonnes to 211.48 lakh tonnes by 2035.

Soybean production is expected to increase from 141.14 lakh tonnes to 160.19 lakh tonnes, but domestic soybean consumption is projected to reach 189.71 lakh tonnes, necessitating continued imports.

Pulses present a more constructive picture: output is projected to cross the 300-lakh-tonne mark, rising from 259.60 lakh tonnes to 307.23 lakh tonnes, and per capita consumption is expected to inch up from 14.5 kg to 15.3 kg. Import dependence in pulses is expected to persist — particularly in low-output years — with Canada and Australia remaining India's principal suppliers.

India's livestock and fisheries sectors are projected to record broad-based growth through 2035, driven by rising incomes, population growth and shifting dietary preferences.

• Milk: Output is projected to surge from 2,474.77 lakh tonnes to 3,805.86 lakh tonnes, reinforcing India's position as the world's largest milk producer. Growth is expected to come from larger dairy herds and gradual productivity improvements. India's dairy sector is expected to remain domestically focused, with limited participation in global export markets.
• Poultry meat: Production is forecast to rise from 52.22 lakh tonnes to 74.10 lakh tonnes, with domestic consumption rising at a similar pace.
• Eggs: Output is projected to grow from 80.95 lakh tonnes to 136.20 lakh tonnes.
• Fish & seafood: Production is expected to increase from 183.10 lakh tonnes to 209.93 lakh tonnes, with exports rising from 16.52 lakh tonnes to 20.15 lakh tonnes, underlining fisheries' growing contribution to India's agricultural export basket.