Indian Rice Export Prices Hold Near 10-Month High as El Niño Tightens Supply Outlook

Indian rice export prices have held near their highest levels in ten months, with the 5% broken parboiled variety quoted at $358 to $364 per metric ton and 5% broken white rice at $357 to $363 per ton — both unchanged from the previous week.

The firmness is being driven by a combination of rising domestic paddy procurement costs and growing anxiety over El Niño's potential impact on production. According to a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house, the supply-side uncertainty is compelling buyers to continue purchasing even at elevated price levels.

On the trade front, Indian rice exports grew 5% in the first half of 2026, powered by stronger non-basmati shipments. That gain, however, was partially offset by a contraction in basmati exports after the Iran war disrupted established trade corridors with Gulf markets — a dent in one of India's most lucrative export segments.

Thailand saw its 5% broken rice quoted at $455 to $460 per ton this week, up from $450 the previous week — reaching a one-month high, according to a Bangkok-based trader. The trader noted that regular Asian buyers such as Singapore and Malaysia are purchasing only in essential volumes, while Indonesia's domestic production has reduced its import appetite.

On the supply side, the Thai trader flagged that output from central provinces is gradually entering the market, and projected that rice exports from Thailand would "definitely decline" by year-end — a signal that the current price support may be temporary.

Vietnam's 5% broken rice was offered at $430 to $450 per ton on Thursday, steady week-on-week, with a Ho Chi Minh City-based trader describing trading activity as quiet amid weak demand. The subdued tone on the ground contrasts sharply with the policy momentum building within the country's rice trade establishment.

Vietnam's Food Association made a significant policy move this week, formally seeking the imposition of floor prices on both rice exports and domestic fresh paddy — citing the need to protect producers and exporters from price manipulation.

The association's proposal sets a floor export price of $500 per ton (free on board) for fragrant rice. On the domestic side, it is pushing for a floor price of 7,000 dong for unhusked fresh paddy.

If adopted, these floors would effectively set a new pricing baseline in one of Asia's largest rice-exporting nations. For Indian exporters — who currently quote non-basmati varieties well below Vietnam's proposed fragrant rice floor — this could reshape the competitive landscape, particularly in markets where Vietnamese fragrant varieties compete with Indian premium rice.

Rice prices in Bangladesh have remained elevated following two successive rounds of flooding that damaged standing crops and disrupted production logistics across the country.

Bangladesh's agriculture officials confirmed the government is actively working on developing climate-resilient rice varieties aimed at equipping farmers to better manage the mounting pressures of climate change. While details of the programme were not disclosed, the initiative reflects a broader regional recognition that weather volatility — from El Niño in the west to monsoonal flooding in the east — is reshaping rice production risk.

For traders and policymakers tracking South and Southeast Asian supply, the Bangladesh situation adds another layer of uncertainty to an already tight regional balance, reinforcing the price-supportive environment visible across major exporting markets this week.