Monsoon Crunch: Tomato, Onion & Potato Drive July Thali Costs Up, Though Annual Food Bills Remain Softer

The average cost of preparing a vegetarian thali at home rose 4% month-on-month to ₹28.1 in July, up from ₹27.1 in June, according to Crisil's Roti Rice Rate report — an index that tracks input prices across north, south, east, and west India. The non-vegetarian thali moved in the opposite direction, easing 2% to ₹53.5 from ₹54.8 the previous month, helped by a seasonal dip in broiler chicken demand.

The divergence reflects a familiar monsoon-season pattern: perishable vegetables face acute supply constraints while protein demand softens as consumers observe dietary restrictions during the Shravan period. For household budgets, the net effect is a pinch on everyday vegetarian meals even as non-vegetarian options become marginally more affordable.

Tomato was the single largest driver of July's month-on-month increase. Prices of the kitchen staple surged 31% as market arrivals contracted by 27%, a sharp seasonal squeeze that regularly accompanies the monsoon months when transit losses rise and harvests from key growing belts thin out.

Potato and onion prices also edged higher — up 2% and 5% month-on-month, respectively — compounding the pressure on everyday cooking costs.

Yet context matters: despite July's spike, tomato prices were still 36% lower year-on-year at ₹42 per kg, compared with ₹66 per kg in July 2025. Potato and onion prices each fell 30% and 36% year-on-year, respectively. Improved onion production boosted supplies, while potato's sharp correction follows crop losses from blight infestations and adverse weather that had driven prices up a year ago.

Beyond vegetables, the annual picture for the thali basket is mixed. Pulses prices fell 14% year-on-year on the back of better crop output and comfortable stock positions — meaningful savings given that dal is a dietary staple across Indian households. Rice prices eased 4% year-on-year, adding incremental relief.

However, two cost centres moved against consumers:

• Vegetable oil prices rose 20% year-on-year, reflecting import cost pressures and global edible oil market dynamics.
• LPG cylinder prices increased 6% year-on-year, raising the fuel component of meal preparation.

These twin headwinds meant that even with softer vegetable prices, the full benefit of the annual moderation was only partially transmitted to household food bills.

For non-vegetarian consumers, the dominant story in July was the continued softening of broiler chicken prices — down an estimated 12% year-on-year and 9% month-on-month. Since broiler chicken accounts for nearly half the cost of a non-vegetarian thali, this single ingredient largely explains why the overall non-veg thali cost fell to ₹53.5 in July.

Crisil attributes the price decline to two converging factors: weaker seasonal demand during the monsoon and the influence of the Shravan period, when a significant share of consumers traditionally abstain from meat. The combination of reduced offtake and adequate supply pulled broiler prices down, providing a meaningful offset to any pressure from other ingredients in the non-veg basket.

Stepping back from the monthly volatility, the vegetarian thali was 14% cheaper than in July last year, and the non-vegetarian thali was approximately 13% cheaper on a year-on-year basis — a broadly positive outcome for food affordability across income groups.

This annual moderation reflects a combination of factors: a high base from July 2025 when vegetable prices were elevated, improved agricultural production in key commodities, and easing of protein costs. Crisil's Roti Rice Rate index, which aggregates input costs across four Indian regions, presents a more grounded picture of household food inflation than headline wholesale or retail indices, making it a useful reference for policymakers tracking rural and urban consumption stress.