Rainfall Deficit and White Stem Borer Put India's Arabica Coffee Crop at Risk for 2026-27
Monsoon shortfalls of up to 61% in key Karnataka and Kerala coffee districts, compounded by a surge in white stem borer infestations, are threatening arabica output for the 2026-27 crop year beginning October.
The short answer
India's four principal coffee-growing districts — Kodagu, Chikmagalur, Hassan, and Wayanad — have recorded rainfall deficits ranging from 2% to 61% this monsoon season, imperilling arabica coffee production for the 2026-27 crop year. Dry spells have triggered a sharper-than-usual outbreak of white stem borer, a pest that specifically attacks arabica plants, with some growers already removing affected plants. The Coffee Board has projected total 2026-27 output at 4.04 lakh tonnes, but planters and industry bodies warn that the arabica component faces a clear downside risk.
The Rainfall Picture
Uneven Monsoon Leaves Key Districts Parched
India's premier coffee belt is in the grip of a distinctly lopsided monsoon. According to Indian Meteorological Department data, the four districts that together contributed 87% of the country's 3.73 lakh tonne 2025-26 coffee crop have all recorded below-normal rainfall this season.
- Kodagu, the country's single largest coffee-producing district, logged a 25% deficit, receiving 1,260.6 mm against a normal of 1,677.3 mm between June 1 and August 11.
- Hassan has been the worst affected, with actual rainfall of just 173.7 mm against a normal of 445.7 mm — a shortfall of 61%.
- Wayanad in Kerala recorded 955 mm against a normal of 1,904.2 mm, a deficit of 50%.
- Chikmagalur has fared relatively better, with a marginal 2% deficit — 1,071.2 mm received versus a normal of 1,088.2 mm.
Sahadev Balakrishna of the UPASI Coffee Committee noted that while the monsoon picked up across several growing regions from July 15 onwards after a sluggish start, coverage remains patchy.
The Pest Threat
White Stem Borer Surges as Dry Spells Bite Arabica Growers
The rainfall shortfall has created conditions conducive to an outbreak of white stem borer (WSB), a destructive pest that preferentially attacks arabica coffee plants. Planters across the belt report that WSB incidence this season is significantly worse than in the previous couple of years, when adequate moisture kept the pest in check.
Nanda Belliappa, Chairman of the Coorg Planters Association, stated that approximately 70% of growing areas have not received the rainfall they need, and flagged WSB as the primary worry for arabica growers this season. He added that some growers have already begun removing WSB-infected plants from their estates.
M. Salman Baseer, Chairman of the Karnataka Planters Association, echoed the concern, saying the dry weather pattern is directly responsible for the heightened infestation and warning that arabica production could see a decline. The arabica variety, grown predominantly at higher elevations, is more vulnerable to WSB compared to the hardier robusta.
About 70 per cent of the places have not received the required rainfall. The concern for arabica growers is the flare up in white stem borer this year due to the dry spells. Arabica will be definitely affected but we will have to wait and watch.
Variety Divergence
Robusta Holds Up; Arabica Outlook Remains Under a Cloud
Not all segments of the crop are under equal stress. Industry observers note a clear divergence between the two major varieties.
Robusta, cultivated at lower elevations and generally more tolerant of variable moisture, appears to be performing reasonably well so far this season. Both Balakrishna of UPASI and Baseer of the Karnataka Planters Association described the robusta crop as looking "okay" or stronger, though both cautioned that a definitive assessment must await the close of the monsoon season in 2-3 weeks.
Arabica, however, faces a dual threat — inadequate soil moisture during the critical crop-development window and pest damage from WSB. Balakrishna also cautioned that a weak monsoon would have broader macro-environmental consequences, depleting rivers, water bodies, and irrigation reserves that growers depend on through the dry season ahead.
Board Estimates
Coffee Board Projects Higher Output, But Field Reality May Tell a Different Story
The Coffee Board's post-blossom estimate for 2026-27 pegs total national coffee output at 4.04 lakh tonnes, up from the 2025-26 final estimate of 3.73 lakh tonnes. Within this, arabica is projected at 1.2 lakh tonnes (versus 1.11 lakh tonnes in 2025-26) and robusta at 2.84 lakh tonnes (against 2.62 lakh tonnes).
These estimates, made on the basis of blossom-period surveys, may not fully capture the compounding effect of the mid-season moisture stress and WSB outbreak that has intensified since. Planters on the ground are far more circumspect, with Belliappa saying, "Arabica will be definitely affected but we will have to wait and watch." The next 2-3 months of weather will be decisive in determining whether the Coffee Board's optimistic headline figure holds.
Why it matters
The four districts covered in this report collectively account for 87% of India's coffee output, making the combined stress of erratic rainfall and pest pressure a systemic risk rather than a localised one. A shortfall in arabica — the premium, export-facing variety — could tighten domestic supply and squeeze margins for processors and exporters at a time when the Coffee Board is already projecting higher overall production. Policymakers and the Coffee Board should monitor WSB infestation data closely over the next 2-3 months, while traders and buyers of Indian arabica should factor potential supply-side volatility into forward planning.
Frequently asked
- Which districts are most affected by the monsoon deficit impacting India's coffee crop?
- Hassan has recorded the steepest deficit at 61%, followed by Wayanad at 50% and Kodagu at 25%. Chikmagalur has seen a marginal 2% shortfall. Together, these four districts accounted for about 87% of the 3.73 lakh tonnes of coffee produced in 2025-26.
- What is white stem borer and why is it a threat to arabica coffee?
- White stem borer (WSB) is a pest that specifically attacks arabica coffee plants. Dry weather and insufficient rainfall create conditions that allow WSB to proliferate. Planters report that infestations this season are worse than in the previous couple of years, when adequate rains kept the pest under control. Some growers have already begun removing WSB-affected plants.
- What has the Coffee Board projected for the 2026-27 coffee season?
- The Coffee Board's post-blossom estimate for 2026-27 projects total output at 4.04 lakh tonnes, comprising 1.2 lakh tonnes of arabica and 2.84 lakh tonnes of robusta — up from the 2025-26 final figure of 3.73 lakh tonnes.
- Is robusta coffee also affected by the poor monsoon?
- Industry observers suggest robusta is faring better than arabica so far. Both UPASI Coffee Committee's Sahadev Balakrishna and Karnataka Planters Association Chairman M. Salman Baseer described the robusta crop as looking relatively okay, though both cautioned that a clearer picture would emerge only after the monsoon season concludes in 2-3 weeks.
Source
This report summarises and analyses coverage from The Hindu BusinessLine — Agri Business. The analysis and India context are IndianAgri's own.