Cotton Imports Set for Record 60 Lakh Bales in 2025-26 as Mills Chase Duty-Free Window
The Cotton Association of India has sharply revised its import forecast upward by 13 lakh bales to an all-time high of 60 lakh bales, as textile mills rush to capitalise on the June–October duty-free import window before it closes.
The short answer
India's cotton imports in 2025-26 are now projected to hit a record 60 lakh bales of 170 kg each, up from an earlier estimate of 47 lakh bales, according to the Cotton Association of India. Mills are aggressively sourcing overseas cotton to maximise the benefit of an 11 per cent duty exemption available through October. At the same time, export projections have been trimmed and domestic consumption has been raised, tightening the overall balance sheet for the season.
Record imports
CAI Raises Import Forecast to an Unprecedented 60 Lakh Bales
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has significantly revised its import projection for the 2025-26 season — running through September — upward by 13 lakh bales to a record 60 lakh bales of 170 kg each. The previous estimate stood at 47 lakh bales.
This revision marks an increase of 19 lakh bales over actual imports in the prior season, reflecting a sharp acceleration in overseas procurement. According to CAI President Vinay N Kotak and Crop Committee Chairman Atul S Ganatra, an estimated 51 lakh bales had already arrived at Indian ports by end-June, pointing to a robust import pipeline.
Ganatra noted that a further 10–15 lakh bales are expected to arrive before the September deadline, as mills move decisively to avoid missing the duty-free advantage currently on offer.
Policy driver
11% Duty Exemption Fuels Buying Frenzy Among Textile Mills
The primary catalyst behind the import surge is a government-granted duty exemption covering the June–October period, which makes overseas cotton purchases effectively 11 per cent cheaper than they would otherwise be. Mills across India's spinning and weaving sectors are treating this window as a strategic procurement opportunity.
"Mills are importing more and don't want to miss out on the 11 per cent duty-free advantage," said Ganatra, underscoring the urgency driving purchase decisions.
The exemption has altered buying behaviour significantly — what began as a moderate projection of 47 lakh bales for the season has ballooned to 60 lakh bales as mills lock in contracted volumes. With the duty-free window expiring in October, the pace of arrivals through September will be closely watched by the trade.
Mills are importing more and don't want to miss out on the 11 per cent duty-free advantage.
Domestic balance
Higher Consumption, Lower Exports Reshape the Season's Supply Equation
Even as imports climb, CAI has made notable adjustments on both the demand and export sides of the ledger.
Consumption revised up: Based on data from the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI), total domestic cotton consumption for 2025-26 has been raised by 10 lakh bales to 348 lakh bales, from an earlier 338 lakh bales estimate. Consumption through June 30 alone stood at 261 lakh bales.
Exports trimmed: Export projections have been cut by 3 lakh bales to 15 lakh bales from 18 lakh bales — a figure that matches last year's actual export performance. Shipments till end-June totalled 11.25 lakh bales.
Pressing estimate raised: CAI has also increased its pressing estimate by 3 lakh bales to 337 lakh bales, reflecting stronger-than-anticipated crop arrivals at mandis and ginning centres.
Supply overview
Total Cotton Supply for 2025-26 Seen at 452.59 Lakh Bales
CAI's revised numbers put total cotton supply for the 2025-26 season at 452.59 lakh bales, a substantial improvement from 393.59 lakh bales in the previous year — an addition of roughly 59 lakh bales year-on-year.
The supply pool is composed of:
- Opening stock: 55.59 lakh bales
- Domestic pressing: 337 lakh bales
- Imports: 60 lakh bales
It is worth noting that the opening stock figure has been revised down by 5 lakh bales. CAI explained this as a reconciliation exercise, with a corresponding increase in consumption applied retroactively to the 2024-25 season to align official estimates with trade realities.
With total supply at 452.59 lakh bales against revised consumption of 348 lakh bales, the season's closing stock trajectory will depend on the pace at which mill consumption and exports absorb the available fibre.
Why it matters
A record import figure of 60 lakh bales signals that Indian spinning mills are structurally dependent on overseas fibre at competitive landed costs — a dynamic that will intensify pressure on domestic cotton growers and depress farmgate realisations if this pattern persists. The simultaneous downgrade in exports and upgrade in consumption suggests India is increasingly a net cotton importer in volume terms, a shift policymakers and commodity traders will need to track closely. With the duty-free window closing in October, the direction of import flows in the November–March period will be a key indicator of how the domestic supply-demand balance settles.
Frequently asked
- Why has the Cotton Association of India revised its import forecast so sharply upward?
- CAI raised its 2025-26 cotton import projection by 13 lakh bales to 60 lakh bales because textile mills are aggressively procuring overseas cotton to take advantage of an 11 per cent duty exemption available during the June–October period. By end-June, 51 lakh bales had already arrived at Indian ports.
- How does the 2025-26 cotton import estimate compare with last year?
- The revised forecast of 60 lakh bales represents an increase of 19 lakh bales over the previous year's import figure, according to CAI's latest pressing estimate released on July 29, 2026.
- What has happened to India's cotton export projections for 2025-26?
- CAI has cut its export estimate by 3 lakh bales to 15 lakh bales for 2025-26, down from an earlier projection of 18 lakh bales. Last year's actual cotton exports also stood at 18 lakh bales.
- What is India's total cotton supply for the 2025-26 season?
- CAI estimates total cotton supply for 2025-26 at 452.59 lakh bales, comprising an opening stock of 55.59 lakh bales, domestic pressing of 337 lakh bales, and imports of 60 lakh bales — up from 393.59 lakh bales in the previous season.
Source
This report summarises and analyses coverage from The Hindu BusinessLine — Agri Business. The analysis and India context are IndianAgri's own.