Fertiliser Sales Slump 13% in July as Monsoon Deficit and Thin Kharif Sowing Raise Crop Output Fears

Official data released on August 12 show that aggregate fertiliser sales in July 2026 — the month when kharif planting is at its most intense — came in at 77.44 lakh tonnes (lt), down sharply from 89.41 lt in the same month last year, a decline of 13%.

Product-wise, the picture is broadly negative:

• Urea, the most widely used nutrient, slipped 9% to 49.28 lt
• DAP eased 1.4% to 10.7 lt
• MOP fell the steepest, down 21% to 1.95 lt
• Complex fertilisers dropped 29% to 15.51 lt

The July weakness has carried through to the cumulative April–July figure: overall consumption in the first four months of the current fiscal is down 9% to 191.44 lt from 210.6 lt a year ago. Notably, DAP has been the relative outlier, holding nearly flat at around 27 lt over the four-month period even as urea, MOP and complex have all declined.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) data paint a concerning picture of monsoon distribution. Between June 1 and August 12, the country received 485.5 mm of rainfall — 12% below normal. Of India's 741 districts, 338 have recorded more than a 20% rainfall deficit, while 112 districts received only 60% or less of normal rainfall. Districts with a deficit of 30% or more number 191, excluding north-eastern States.

The geographic spread is wide: 16 States and Union Territories — accounting for 35% of India's total land area — have reported deficient rainfall so far this season.

Experts note that the critical sowing window has already been missed in several States, and the weather outlook over the next 20 days offers little prospect of recovery. Districts that have received less than 60% of normal rain are now considered unlikely to avert production losses even with late planting.

The area brought under kharif cultivation as of August 7 stood at 967.92 lakh hectares (lh), against 985.89 lh in the corresponding period last year — a deficit of 1.8%. While this gap has narrowed from earlier in the season, it masks divergence across crops.

Crops trailing year-ago acreage include most major kharif varieties — rice, coarse cereals and key pulses.

Exceptions on the upside: urad, soyabean and groundnut have bucked the trend and are ahead of last year's pace.

The government has set ambitious production targets for Kharif 2026:

• Foodgrains: 176.16 million tonnes (mt), comprising 123.15 mt rice, 8.4 mt pulses, 31.04 mt maize, and 13.56 mt nutri-cereals
• Oilseeds: 28.92 mt in total, with soyabean targeted at 14.85 mt and groundnut at 11.35 mt

With acreage lagging and rainfall patchy, achieving these targets will be a stretch.

Opinion among experts is divided on how severe the eventual output impact will be.

A former deputy director-general of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) struck a cautionary note, warning that delayed sowing — while partially recoverable if final acreage matches last year — cannot fully compensate for missing the optimal planting window. "Overall, there could be a 5–7% fall in yield in key crops as several districts have over 40% rainfall deficit," the expert said, adding that timely planting is highly critical to achieve desired production levels.

However, S K Chaudhary, Director-General of the Fertiliser Association of India (FAI), offered a more measured view, stating that the nutrient availability for farmers has been adequate to expect normal output. He pointed out that higher fertiliser sales were recorded in both March and April following the season's start on February 28, before the slowdown set in from May onwards.