India's Coffee Output Seen at 4.04 Lakh Tonnes in 2026-27, but USDA Paints a Bleaker Picture

India's Coffee Board has released its post-blossom estimate for the 2026-27 crop year — the season's first official production forecast — pegging total output at 4.04 lakh tonnes (lt), up approximately 8% from the final 2025-26 estimate of 3.73 lt. The post-blossom survey captures flowering triggered by pre-monsoon showers and initial crop setting, and serves as a preliminary benchmark rather than a definitive number.

Historically, final figures have come in below initial projections. For 2025-26, the Board had opened with a forecast of 4.03 lt before revising it down to 3.73 lt by season's end — a pattern traders and planners would do well to keep in mind when reading the new estimate.

Within the Coffee Board's 2026-27 projection, robusta accounts for the bulk of expected gains. Robusta output is pegged at 2.84 lt, up from a final estimate of 2.62 lt in 2025-26. Arabica production is estimated at 1.2 lt, against 1.11 lt last year.

Karnataka, India's largest coffee-producing state, is forecast to deliver 2.79 lt (up from 2.56 lt), with all three major districts contributing:

• Kodagu (largest district): 1.31 lt vs 1.21 lt previously; robusta rising to 1.10 lt from 1.01 lt
• Chikkamagaluru: arabica at 43,295 tonnes (from 41,185 t); robusta at 58,860 tonnes (from 53,575 t)
• Hassan: arabica at 20,000 tonnes (from 17,900 t); robusta at 25,700 tonnes (from 22,850 t)

Kerala is projected at 84,570 tonnes vs 80,350 tonnes, led by Wayanad where robusta output is seen rising to 72,450 tonnes from 68,800 tonnes.

Among non-traditional growing states, Andhra Pradesh is emerging as a notable contributor, with projected output jumping to 19,650 tonnes from 15,290 tonnes in the previous year — a significant percentage increase. Odisha is estimated at 550 tonnes (up from 470 tonnes), and the North-Eastern region is pegged at 235 tonnes, marginally higher than 220 tonnes last year.

Tamil Nadu's production is expected to stay broadly flat at 19,720 tonnes, marginally below last year's 19,975 tonnes — one of the few areas where no meaningful growth is projected.

The gains across multiple states reflect broadly favourable early crop-setting conditions, though the Coffee Board itself notes that pre-monsoon showers were uneven in key Karnataka and Kerala growing zones, leading to scattered blossom — a detail that adds a layer of uncertainty to the headline estimate.

The Coffee Board's optimism is not universally shared. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) office in Mumbai recently projected India's 2026-27 coffee production at 3.68 lt — roughly 4% lower than the previous year — citing weather-related yield losses as the primary drag.

FAS Mumbai estimates arabica output at 93,600 tonnes and robusta at 2.74 lakh tonnes. The agency specifically flags below-normal monsoon rainfall and unusually high temperatures as factors undermining arabica flowering and fruit set. Robusta, it notes, is likely to remain relatively resilient to such weather variability.

The gap between the two forecasts — 4.04 lt versus 3.68 lt — amounts to 36,000 tonnes, a material difference that leaves considerable uncertainty for exporters, roasters, and commodity traders planning forward positions for the season.

Both the Coffee Board and the USDA FAS acknowledge that weather is the swing factor for the 2026-27 crop. Timely rainfall during March and April is critical for triggering coffee flowering, and key growing regions in Karnataka and Kerala received uneven pre-monsoon showers this season — resulting in scattered blossom that complicates yield predictions.

Robusta's resilience to weather variability — and its dominant 75%-plus share of India's total coffee production — offers some buffer to the overall output number. However, arabica, which commands premium prices and caters to specialty export markets, is more sensitive to temperature and rainfall anomalies. The USDA's specific warning about high temperatures affecting arabica flowering is a signal the industry cannot afford to dismiss, particularly given India's growing aspirations in the specialty coffee export segment.