TNAU Forecasts ₹30-35/kg Farm-Gate Price for Small Onions Ahead of Harvest Season

The Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) at Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (TNAU) has issued a price outlook projecting farm-gate realisations of ₹30-35 per kg for good-quality small onions during the approaching harvest season. The projection draws on a rigorous analysis of 15 years of price data from the Dindigul wholesale market, supplemented by a field-level market survey conducted through the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS) at TNAU.

The university has advised farmers to use this forecast as a benchmark when finalising their sowing plans for the season ahead — a direct attempt to align acreage decisions with anticipated market realities and prevent the supply-demand mismatches that can drive sharp post-harvest price corrections.

India is the world's leading producer of small onions — commonly known as shallots — with the crop concentrated in the southern states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh. Within Tamil Nadu, small onions constitute nearly 80% of the state's total onion production, underscoring their outsized importance to the state's horticulture economy.

During 2024-25, the crop was cultivated across 0.44 lakh hectares in the state, yielding 5.28 lakh tonnes at an average productivity of 12 tonnes per hectare. Key producing districts include Dindigul, Tiruppur, Perambalur, Tiruchirappalli, Namakkal, Theni, and Madurai. Fresh arrivals from Perambalur, Dharapuram, Palladam, Udumalpet, and parts of Karnataka are currently arriving in volume at the major wholesale markets in Tiruchirappalli and Dindigul.

Tamil Nadu serves as India's primary export hub for small onions, with established trade lanes to Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Nepal. Trade sources indicate that export demand has held up well through the current season, with overseas shipments accounting for an estimated 5-10% of total small onion production.

While domestic demand is primarily met by supplies from Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh combined, the export component provides an important price floor for growers. A sustained export appetite — even at single-digit percentage shares of output — can meaningfully absorb surplus arrivals and cushion farm-gate realisations when domestic offtake slows. Traders and exporters will be monitoring fresh-arrival volumes from producing districts as the harvest period approaches.

By publishing a forward-looking price outlook tied to historical market evidence, TNAU's DEMIC is attempting to close the information gap that small onion growers routinely face when deciding how much area to sow. The advisory explicitly asks farmers to weigh the projected ₹30-35/kg realisation against their input costs and risk appetite before committing to the next crop cycle.

This kind of institutionalised market intelligence — grounded in multi-year price series and live market surveys — represents a meaningful step toward professionalising decision-making at the farm level for horticulture crops, where price volatility is far sharper than in staple grains. For agri-businesses and traders, the DEMIC forecast also offers an early signal on likely supply volumes and value in the coming season.