El Niño and Delayed Kharif Harvest Cast Shadow Over India's Wheat Crop Year 2026-27
Industry experts at the WPPS CEO Conclave in Varanasi warn that El Niño-driven weather disruptions and a potentially delayed kharif harvest could push back wheat sowing, putting rabi 2026-27 at risk even as global wheat markets remain well
The short answer
India's wheat production for crop year July 2026–June 2027 faces a double threat: El Niño is already straining the south-west monsoon, and a delayed kharif harvest could compress the wheat sowing window. Experts speaking at the Wheat Products Promotion Society CEO Conclave in Varanasi last week flagged rabi crops as being at risk, though a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could offer partial relief in September–October. Globally, wheat markets remain well supplied — particularly from the Black Sea region — with futures showing no significant price upside in the near term.
The climate threat
El Niño and a Lagging Monsoon Put Wheat Sowing on the Clock
India's wheat crop for the 2026-27 season (July 2026–June 2027) is staring at a climate-induced squeeze, according to senior agri-industry executives who gathered at the Wheat Products Promotion Society (WPPS) CEO Conclave in Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, last week.
Gaurav Anand, General Manager and Head of Grains Business at ITC Limited Agri Business Division, flagged that a delayed harvest of kharif crops — itself a consequence of an erratic south-west monsoon — could push back wheat sowing dates, opening the door for adverse weather to hurt yields.
Jatin Singh, Founder and Managing Director of Skymet, was more direct: the monsoon situation is already poor, and by September enough damage to crop prospects would have been done. He noted that while India Meteorological Department has not officially declared drought since 2016, this year has the profile of a drought year. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could deliver beneficial rains in September–October, Singh said, though he cautioned that monsoon damage could already be entrenched before the IOD effect kicks in.
Rabi at risk
El Niño Casts a Long Shadow Over Winter Crop Production
The El Niño concern extends well beyond the kharif season. Gaurav Jain, Co-Founder and Director of Agpulse Analytics, warned that the prevailing El Niño weather pattern could directly impact winter crop — that is, rabi — production this year. "Rabi crops may be at risk," he said, underlining that the threat is not limited to the ongoing kharif cycle.
Jain also highlighted the geopolitical dimension: while production in parts of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has declined due to ongoing conflict, countries including India and China have ramped up wheat output in response to strong demand. Global wheat production has consequently climbed to 170 million tonnes, up from 150 million tonnes previously.
Somnath Chatterjee, Executive Vice-President and Head of Procurement and Logistics at ITC Food Division, characterised the wheat market as facing a volatile scenario driven by the geopolitical crisis in West Asia compounded by El Niño fears — a combination that makes forward planning difficult for millers and processors.
There is plenty of wheat in the Black Sea region, which is anchoring supplies. There is no chance of any significant rise in wheat prices.
Global supply picture
Black Sea Stocks Keep Global Wheat Prices in Check
Despite the climate anxiety surrounding Indian and MENA production, the global wheat market picture is one of adequate supply, experts at the conclave agreed.
Rory Deverell, Owner and Principal Consultant at Black Silo Commodity Consulting, Ireland, described growth in market supply as the defining story of the season. He pointed to ample stocks in the Black Sea region as the key anchor keeping prices suppressed. Futures markets, he noted, are not signalling any price rise for the July–September period. "There is plenty of wheat in the Black Sea region, which is anchoring supplies. There is no chance of any significant rise in wheat prices," Deverell said.
For Indian stakeholders, this means export competitiveness on price remains constrained. Cesar Soares, Global Strategic Development Lead at McDonald Pelz, stated plainly that India cannot match Russian or Black Sea wheat on price — and should instead pursue value addition as its competitive strategy.
Quality and trade gaps
Feed Wheat Exports and Absent Hedging Draw Sharp Criticism
The conclave's second session — focused on procurement, trade, storage, supply chain, and food security — surfaced deeper structural concerns about how India positions its wheat commercially.
Major Rajiv Yadav, Director and CEO of Rajshubh Agri LLP, questioned why Indian wheat is being shipped overseas as feed wheat — a low-value commodity use — rather than as milling or premium wheat. He called for MSP to be linked to protein content as a quality incentive, and urged the creation of hedging instruments in wheat to enable proper price discovery.
Ashish Bhatnagar, Director and Head of Procurement at Bimboo Bakeries India Pvt Ltd, echoed the frustration over the absence of hedging mechanisms in the wheat market.
On the domestic pricing front, Anand Chandra, Co-Founder and COO of Arya.ag, highlighted an anomaly: wheat prices are now tending to be low during the off-season while spiking during peak arrivals — the reverse of what efficient markets should deliver — attributed to a rush among all stakeholders to procure simultaneously. Khalid Khan, Vice-President and Head of Procurement and Supply Chain at ITC Ltd Agri Business Division, called for greater transparency in wheat procurement processes.
The India read
Logistics, Research Funding, and Value Addition: The Calls to Action
Several actionable themes emerged from the Varanasi conclave that are relevant for policymakers and agri-businesses alike.
- Logistics as a competitive lever: Sahil Sethi, Trader at Grain-India, Louis Dreyfus Company, emphasised that logistics has become central to wheat trade, and that optimising supply chains is now as critical as production itself.
- Research and development investment: Major Rajiv Yadav called for increased funding for agricultural research and development to improve wheat quality and yields.
- Value addition over volume exports: With India unable to compete on raw wheat prices against Black Sea suppliers, the consensus view was that processing, fortification, and quality-differentiated exports represent the viable path forward.
The conclave was organised by WPPS in association with the UP Roller Flour Millers Association, and brought together a cross-section of traders, millers, agri-businesses, and international commodity consultants to assess the season ahead.
Why it matters
A delayed or deficient monsoon that pushes back kharif harvest directly threatens the timeliness of wheat sowing across India's major producing states — a cascading risk that millers, flour processors, and food companies need to price into procurement strategies now. The structural concern flagged at the conclave — Indian wheat being exported as feed wheat rather than capturing value-added premiums — points to an urgent gap in quality incentives, including protein-based MSP pricing and hedging mechanisms. With global wheat supply anchored by abundant Black Sea stocks and no price rally in sight, Indian stakeholders have a narrow window to address domestic supply-chain and quality issues before the next season tightens.
Frequently asked
- How could El Niño affect India's wheat production in 2026-27?
- El Niño is disrupting the south-west monsoon, which could delay the kharif harvest. A late kharif harvest compresses the window for wheat sowing, making the crop vulnerable to adverse weather — experts at the WPPS Conclave said rabi crops may be at risk as a result.
- Could the Indian Ocean Dipole offset the monsoon damage?
- A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could bring beneficial rains during September–October, according to Skymet's Jatin Singh. However, he cautioned that significant monsoon damage could already be done by the time the IOD effect materialises.
- Why are global wheat prices expected to remain stable despite these concerns?
- Ample wheat stocks in the Black Sea region are anchoring global supply. Rory Deverell of Black Silo Commodity Consulting noted that futures markets show no price rise expected for the July–September period, and ruled out any significant upward movement in wheat prices.
- Why is Indian wheat being exported as feed wheat, and what can be done?
- Major Rajiv Yadav of Rajshubh Agri LLP raised this concern at the conclave, attributing the issue partly to the absence of quality-linked pricing. He called for MSP to be based on wheat protein content and for hedging mechanisms to be introduced to improve price discovery and incentivise quality production.
Source
This report summarises and analyses coverage from The Hindu BusinessLine — Agri Business. The analysis and India context are IndianAgri's own.