Kharif Sowing Down 23% as 42% Monsoon Deficit Squeezes Acreage Across Crops

India's kharif sowing season is off to its worst start in at least a year. Aggregate crop coverage stood at 182.72 lakh hectares (lh) as of June 25, a steep drop from 236.46 lh recorded in the same period last year, according to official data. That translates to a 23% year-on-year decline — and against the season's normal acreage of 1,104.46 lh, the current coverage represents just 16.5%, compared with more than 21% at the corresponding point in 2025.

The proximate cause is a monsoon that has been persistently below par since its onset over Kerala on June 4. As of June 29, the all-India deficit had widened to 42%, hitting sowing readiness in the primary kharif states hard. Officials acknowledged the gap but noted that the sowing season is still in early stages, and a fortnight of consistent rainfall could provide meaningful relief — even if fully closing the gap on last year's exceptional monsoon performance remains unlikely.

Cotton has recorded the steepest acreage fall among major crops, with coverage at 29.66 lh against 45.36 lh a year ago — a 35% decline. Soybean planting has been even more dramatic in proportional terms, collapsing to 6.92 lh from 19.97 lh, while groundnut area has shrunk to 8.87 lh from 15.29 lh. Total oilseed acreage stands at 16.99 lh, down from 36.41 lh last year.

The pulse sector is equally stressed. Arhar (pigeon pea) sowing, at 3.56 lh, is less than half the 8.45 lh logged a year ago. Urad (black gram) has fallen to 1.07 lh from 2.51 lh, while moong (green gram) is broadly flat at 8.37 lh versus 8.63 lh. Total pulses acreage reached 14.92 lh against 21.46 lh.

Paddy transplanting — the kharif season's principal cereal — stands at 25.75 lh, down from 34.41 lh. Among coarse and nutri cereals, bajra dropped to 11.34 lh from 13.06 lh and maize to 15.71 lh from 18.61 lh, though jowar showed a rare gain, rising to 3.38 lh from 2.70 lh. Sugarcane is the only major crop to show a net positive, given it was planted earlier in the calendar year.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has characterised monsoon progress so far as erratic since the June 4 Kerala onset. On June 29, IMD said conditions are favourable for further advance into parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand over the following two days. A subsequent advance into parts of Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, south-east Rajasthan, and the remaining parts of Gujarat was also indicated for the two-to-three days thereafter.

Agricultural officials are watching the IMD outlook closely, given that July is the most critical month for kharif sowing across the majority of crops. A sustained revival over the next fortnight could partially offset the current acreage deficit. However, with a Super El Niño forecast in the background, the risk of continued erratic distribution remains elevated, making confidence in a complete turnaround premature.

The 23% acreage shortfall is being read by officials and market participants as the first concrete signal of possible lower kharif production in the 2026 season. The comparison with 2025 is inherently unflattering — last year India recorded a well-distributed monsoon that drove strong sowing pace — but the absolute levels of acreage are nonetheless concerning.

For commodity traders, the crop-specific data points carry immediate pricing implications:

• Cotton and oilseeds are facing the largest absolute and proportional acreage reductions, which could tighten domestic supply if the trend holds.
• Pulses, already a politically sensitive category, are tracking well below year-ago sowing pace, with arhar coverage less than half of last year's level.
• Paddy is behind schedule, though its sowing window extends deeper into July, leaving some room for recovery if rainfall normalises.

The season's normal acreage of 1,104.46 lh provides the benchmark — and with only 16.5% of that covered so far, the bulk of the season's sowing outcome will hinge on July's monsoon behaviour.