Kharif Sowing Slumps 23% as Delayed Monsoon and Dry Reservoirs Squeeze India's Cropping Season

Agriculture Ministry data released on June 30 shows total kharif sowing at 182.72 lakh hectares as of June 25, against 236.46 lakh hectares at the same point in 2025 — a shortfall of 23%. Only sugarcane and jute-mesta bucked the trend, posting marginal year-on-year gains to 57.31 lakh hectares and 6.25 lakh hectares respectively.

Every other major crop category is lagging:

• Paddy: 25.75 lakh ha vs 34.41 lakh ha (–25.17%)
• Pulses: 14.92 lakh ha vs 21.46 lakh ha (–30.47%)
• Oilseeds: 16.99 lakh ha vs 36.41 lakh ha (–53.33%)
• Coarse cereals: 31.84 lakh ha vs 36.07 lakh ha
• Cotton: 29.66 lakh ha vs 45.36 lakh ha (–34.61%)

The breadth of the decline — spanning staple cereals, protein crops, edible oils, and fibre — underscores that this is not a crop-specific issue but a season-wide disruption rooted in rainfall failure.

Within the two most affected categories, the sub-crop breakdown reveals where supply risks are concentrating most acutely.

Oilseeds recorded the steepest overall fall, driven by dramatic retreats in the two dominant crops:

• Soybean area collapsed to 6.92 lakh hectares from 19.97 lakh hectares a year ago — a loss of nearly 13 lakh hectares that will weigh heavily on central India's soy belt.
• Groundnut area fell to 8.87 lakh hectares from 15.29 lakh hectares.

Pulses are similarly stressed, with tur/arhar — India's most price-sensitive pulse — sown on just 3.56 lakh hectares versus 8.45 lakh hectares last year, less than half the year-ago level. Given that tur prices have remained elevated through recent seasons, any further output compression will intensify pressure on retail dal prices and may prompt early government intervention on imports or stock limits.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that the southwest monsoon was running 42% below normal as of June 24 — the direct cause of delayed and depressed sowing activity nationwide.

The regional picture reveals stark internal disparities:

• Central India: 59% deficit — the worst affected zone and home to major soybean and cotton belts
• East and Northeast India: 41% deficit, impacting early paddy transplanting
• South Peninsula: 28% deficit
• Northwest India: 22% deficit

Compounding the concern, El Niño conditions are currently active over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and, according to IMD, are expected to intensify through the June–September monsoon period. El Niño years have historically been associated with weaker Indian summer monsoons, suggesting that a sharp mid-season rainfall recovery — the traditional safety valve — cannot be assumed this year.

With rainfall scarce, water storage data from the Central Water Commission (CWC) adds another layer of risk. Live storage across 166 important reservoirs stood at 48.405 billion cubic metres (BCM) as of June 25 — equivalent to 26.37% of full reservoir level (FRL) capacity.

While this figure is 105.67% of the long-term normal for this time of year, it represents only 73.21% of last year's storage at the same date, pointing to a meaningful year-on-year decline in available water.

At the reservoir level, the distribution is uneven:

• 111 of 166 reservoirs held more than 80% of normal storage
• 55 reservoirs were at 80% or below normal storage
• Of those 55, 29 reservoirs were at 50% or less of normal storage

Reservoirs in deficit zones will be critical for supplemental irrigation once the monsoon eventually advances, and their current state limits the buffer available to compensate for ongoing rainfall gaps.