Up to 83% Rainfall Deficit Puts Kashmir's Apple and Paddy Crops at Risk

IMD data covering June 1 to July 15 paints a stark picture of moisture deprivation across Jammu and Kashmir's key farming districts. Shopian has recorded the steepest shortfall, receiving only 14.4 mm of rainfall against a normal of 83.5 mm — a deficit of 83 per cent. Kulgam follows at 63 per cent below normal, while Budgam and Srinagar have each fallen 53 per cent short, and Bandipora lags by 52 per cent.

The cumulative effect of this prolonged dry spell has extended well beyond statistical anomaly — soil has hardened, irrigation channels have run dry, and two of the Valley's most economically vital crops are now caught in the crossfire at precisely the wrong time in their growth cycles.

Apple cultivation is the backbone of Kashmir's horticulture economy, generating 20 to 22 lakh tonnes of produce annually and supporting the livelihoods of nearly 35 lakh people directly or indirectly. That economy is now under strain.

Horticulture experts warn that the absence of adequate rainfall is intensifying moisture stress in orchards precisely as the crop enters a critical fruit development phase. Tariq Rasool, Associate Professor at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology (SKUAST)-Kashmir, cautioned that if dry conditions persist, growers will likely see a surge in physiological disorders — particularly fruit cracking and lenticel blotch — both of which reduce marketable quality and depress farm-gate value.

For traders and commission agents who depend on consistent apple grades, any significant outbreak of these disorders could compress margins and disrupt supply chains heading into the peak harvest and despatch season.

Paddy, the Valley's principal food crop cultivated across thousands of hectares, is faring no better. In south Kashmir's Kulgam district — already recording a 63 per cent rainfall deficit — irrigation channels have run critically low, and villages including YK Pora, Khar Gund, Chowgam, and Churat are facing conditions that farmers describe as drought-like.

Abdulla Rashid, a Kulgam farmer, described fields that have turned into a hard surface with deep cracks opening in the soil, leaving paddy plants struggling to establish. He warned that without imminent rain or the restoration of irrigation water, a substantial portion of the crop could be lost.

Farmers across the district note that severely hardened soil is impeding root development, and that the risk of widespread crop failure will escalate sharply if the dry conditions extend through the coming weeks.

There is cautious optimism among growers. An IMD official, speaking to The Hindu BusinessLine, confirmed that widespread rainfall is expected to begin across the region from July 19, with the most intense activity forecast for July 21 and 22.

For apple growers, a timely and sustained downpour could ease moisture stress and reduce the incidence of physiological disorders before lasting damage to fruit sets in. For paddy farmers in Kulgam and neighbouring districts, rain in this window is critical — the crop cannot afford further soil hardening if it is to recover ground lost during the extended dry period.

However, farmers remain wary: expectations of monsoon relief have been disappointed before this season, and many say they will believe the forecast only when the rain arrives.