Paddy Deficit Halves to 13% as July Rains Spark Kharif Sowing Recovery
A 35% surplus in rainfall during July 1–5 has cut paddy's acreage shortfall from 25% to 13%, though oilseeds, cotton, and pulses remain deeply behind last year's pace.
The short answer
India's kharif sowing has picked up sharply after heavy rains in the first five days of July, with paddy's acreage deficit narrowing from 25% to 13% compared to a year ago. Total kharif acreage stood at 350.85 lakh hectares as of July 5, still 21% below the year-ago level of 442.80 lakh hectares. Oilseeds, cotton, and pulses continue to lag significantly, even as experts expect sowing momentum to accelerate over the coming week.
The turnaround
July Rains Slash Paddy's Sowing Deficit in Half
A burst of monsoon activity in the opening days of July has delivered a timely shot in the arm for kharif sowing. According to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data, overall rainfall deficiency — which stood at a steep 39% through June — has eased to 20% for the June 1–6 period following the monsoon's revival from July 1.
For paddy, the headline beneficiary, the acreage gap versus the previous year contracted from 25% as of June 25 to 13% by July 5. Transplanting covered 60.24 lakh hectares (lh), compared with 69.30 lh a year ago. The total kharif footprint reached 350.85 lh as of July 5 — equivalent to 32% of the season's normal area of 1,104.46 lh — against 442.80 lh in the year-ago period, still leaving an overall shortfall of 21%.
Experts noted that strong rainfall in central India and the north-west region in recent days should sustain sowing momentum, with further coverage gains expected within the next week.
The laggards
Oilseeds, Cotton, and Pulses Remain Sharply Behind
While paddy's trajectory has improved, several other key kharif crops remain well off last year's pace.
Oilseeds present the starkest picture, with coverage at 66.31 lh against 109.27 lh a year ago. Within oilseeds:
- Soybean has slipped to 47.80 lh from 79.20 lh
- Groundnut has fallen to 16.93 lh from 28 lh
Cotton acreage is 23% lower at 63.18 lh, down from 82 lh in the previous year.
Pulses acreage reached 37.15 lh against 47.49 lh a year ago. Among individual pulse crops, arhar (pigeon peas) sowing stands at 12.35 lh versus 21 lh, moong at 16.81 lh against 17.20 lh, and urad at 3.01 lh against 4.63 lh.
Nutri and coarse cereals were 16% lower at 60.12 lh against 71.86 lh, with bajra dipping to 20.82 lh from 30 lh and maize at 32.94 lh from 35 lh.
The bright spots
Sugarcane and Jute Buck the Downtrend
Not every crop is in deficit. Sugarcane acreage has edged ahead of the prior year, reaching 57.58 lh compared with 56.72 lh in the same period last season. Jute and mesta coverage similarly registered a marginal gain, at 6.28 lh versus 6.16 lh a year ago.
These modest advances provide some relief, though both crops account for a smaller share of the total kharif acreage compared with paddy, oilseeds, or cotton. Their positive trajectory does, however, reflect adequate moisture availability in the specific growing belts — predominantly eastern India for jute and parts of Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh for sugarcane — suggesting the monsoon's distribution has not been uniformly unfavourable.
The production targets
Government's Kharif 2026 Targets Leave Little Room for Error
The central government has set an ambitious Kharif 2026 foodgrain production target of 176.16 million tonnes (mt), anchored by a rice target of 123.15 mt. The broader targets include:
- Pulses: 8.4 mt
- Maize: 31.04 mt
- Nutri cereals: 13.56 mt
- Total oilseeds: 28.92 mt, of which soybean is targeted at 14.85 mt and groundnut at 11.35 mt
Given current acreage levels — particularly in oilseeds, where coverage is running at roughly 60% of last year's level at this stage — hitting these targets will hinge critically on a strong sowing finish in July and timely rains through the crop growth period. Paddy's improved trajectory is encouraging for the rice target, but the oilseeds and pulses shortfalls present a more serious challenge to aggregate foodgrain output ambitions.
Why it matters
The pace of kharif sowing in the next two to three weeks will be critical to determining whether India can approach its ambitious foodgrain production target of 176.16 million tonnes for Kharif 2026. Deep deficits in oilseeds — particularly soybean, down from 79.20 lh to 47.80 lh — and cotton pose risks to domestic edible-oil supplies and fibre availability. Policymakers and commodity traders should watch IMD's rainfall updates closely: a continuation of the current surplus could bridge much of the remaining gap, while any renewed deficiency would put the government's rice target of 123.15 million tonnes under pressure.
Frequently asked
- What is India's total kharif acreage as of July 5, 2026?
- Total kharif acreage stood at 350.85 lakh hectares as of July 5, which is 32% of the season's normal area of 1,104.46 lakh hectares and 21% lower than the 442.80 lakh hectares recorded in the same period a year ago.
- By how much has paddy's sowing deficit improved in early July 2026?
- Paddy's acreage deficit versus the previous year narrowed from 25% as of June 25 to 13% by July 5, aided by a 35% surplus in rainfall during July 1–5 and the revival of the southwest monsoon from July 1.
- Which kharif crops are most behind their year-ago acreage levels?
- Oilseeds are the most severely lagging, with coverage at 66.31 lakh hectares against 109.27 lakh hectares a year ago. Within oilseeds, soybean has fallen from 79.20 lh to 47.80 lh and groundnut from 28 lh to 16.93 lh. Cotton is also 23% lower at 63.18 lh, and pulses have declined from 47.49 lh to 37.15 lh.
- What is the government's rice production target for Kharif 2026?
- The government has set a rice production target of 123.15 million tonnes for Kharif 2026, as part of an overall foodgrain target of 176.16 million tonnes for the season.
Source
This report summarises and analyses coverage from The Hindu BusinessLine — Agri Business. The analysis and India context are IndianAgri's own.