USDA July Crop Report: Global Grain Output Trimmed, India Holds Record Wheat at 121 MT

The USDA's July edition of its World Agricultural Production report presents a broadly softer picture for global grains in 2026-27. Global wheat output has been nudged down to 819.97 million tonnes (MT) from 820.06 MT in the June forecast — and sits nearly 24 MT below last year's record crop. Coarse grains have been revised more sharply, falling to 1,591.95 MT from 1,594.49 MT in June and running about 32.4 MT below the previous year's level. Global rice production has been trimmed to 537.2 MT from 537.8 MT in June, itself well below last year's 545.7 MT.

The primary culprit across all three categories is adverse weather: drought and record heat in France are set to produce that country's smallest corn harvest since 1990-91, flood-related yield losses have cut Pakistan's corn estimate, and prolonged dryness has hurt Kenya's crop. The only offsetting force is oilseeds and cotton — global oilseed output has been raised to a record 720 MT and cotton to 117.3 million bales.

India emerges from the July revision with its estimates intact across all major crops, a rare vote of confidence in a report otherwise marked by downgrades.

Wheat: Output is retained at a record 121 MT for 2026-27, up from 117.95 MT last year. Harvested area is estimated at 33.5 million hectares — wider than last year's 32.8 million hectares — with average yield edging up to 3.61 tonnes per hectare.

Rice: India retains its position as the world's largest rice producer at 150 MT (milled basis), unchanged from both June and the prior year. China follows at 147 MT, with Bangladesh third at 39.4 MT.

Corn: Production is projected at 52 MT, steady versus June but below last year's record 55.09 MT. Harvested area holds at 14.41 million hectares, meaning the year-on-year decline reflects lower yield — at 3.61 tonnes per hectare — rather than any contraction in planted area.

Oilseeds: India's output is forecast at 43 MT, marginally above last year's 41.8 MT, benefiting from strong sunflower and soybean prospects globally.

India's total coarse grain production is projected at 71.3 MT for 2026-27 — unchanged from the June estimate but 4.4% below last year's 74.59 MT. The USDA notes that harvested area is actually expected to rise to 27.98 million hectares; the shortfall is entirely attributable to a lower average yield of 2.55 tonnes per hectare.

Sorghum is a relative bright spot: India's output has been retained at 5.4 MT. Globally, Brazil's sorghum crop has been revised up by 19% from June to 6.2 MT, driven by higher acreage as farmers gravitate to sorghum for its lower production costs and drought tolerance — a trend worth monitoring given India's own water-stress challenges.

On cotton, India's production is maintained at 24 million 480-pound bales, just above last year's 23.8 million bales. The global cotton figure of 117.3 million bales is led by Brazil at 18 million bales, supported by record yields despite lower planted area.

The USDA's July numbers cement India's role as a top-tier producer across multiple crops simultaneously — an advantage few countries can claim.

Wheat

China leads at 141 MT, with the EU at 136 MT, Russia at 88.5 MT, Canada at 34 MT, and Australia at 28 MT. India's 121 MT places it firmly in the top tier. Russia's winter wheat crop benefited from favourable rainfall, while Canadian farmers shifted acreage toward canola and barley, pulling output to 34 MT.

Corn

The United States dominates at 406.4 MT, followed by China (307 MT), Brazil (139 MT), Argentina (55 MT), Ukraine (30 MT) and Russia (15.8 MT). India's 52 MT sits just below Argentina. France's drought-hit crop — its worst since 1990-91 — is the most notable downward revision in this cycle.

Oilseeds

Russia's record sunflower seed crop of 20.7 MT and Canada's record rapeseed area — backed by strong biofuel demand — are driving the global oilseed record of 720 MT, with India's 43 MT contributing to the upward trend.