Kharif Sowing Gap Narrows to 16% but Pulses, Oilseeds Acreage Slump Rings Alarm Bells

India's kharif planting covered 531.25 lakh hectares (lh) by July 10, representing 48% of the season's normal area of 1,104.46 lh, according to data released by the Agriculture Ministry. The figure is, however, 16% short of the 632.69 lh recorded at the same point in 2025.

More than 180 lh was added in the week ending July 10, compared with nearly 190 lh in the corresponding week last year — a modest but telling gap that reflects a slowdown in monsoon activity across key agricultural states. Analysts tracking weekly sowing velocity warn the rate of recovery may ease further in the days ahead, given the absence of rainfall forecasts over major farming belts.

Paddy: The acreage deficit for the season's primary cereal has narrowed — from 13% as of July 5 to 9% as of July 10. Paddy has been transplanted on 114.69 lh against 125.53 lh a year ago, according to Ministry data.

Pulses — a red flag: Total pulses coverage fell to 56.63 lh from 73.85 lh in 2025. Arhar (pigeon pea) acreage dropped 30% to 19.54 lh from 28.03 lh; moong slipped to 21.52 lh from 24.08 lh; and urad fell to 9.34 lh from 13.29 lh.

Oilseeds under pressure: The oilseeds category recorded 117.83 lh against 149.18 lh last year. Soyabean dipped to 90.51 lh from 107.72 lh, and groundnut contracted sharply to 23.40 lh from 35.45 lh.

Coarse cereals: Nutri and coarse cereals are 21% lower at 98.69 lh. Bajra fell to 33.76 lh from 45.98 lh, and maize to 55.97 lh from 69.56 lh.

The bright spots: Sugarcane bucked the trend, rising marginally to 57.58 lh from 56.72 lh, and jute and mesta reached 6.28 lh against 6.16 lh a year ago — both crops considered largely complete for sowing.

The monsoon's revival from July 1 has offered a degree of relief. The overall rainfall deficit, which stood at a revised 37% for the month of June, has eased to 19% for the June 1–July 13 period, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data. The cumulative seasonal deficit as of July 10 was 14%.

However, the picture has deteriorated in the most recent window: the pan-India rainfall deficit during July 11–13 widened to 42%, and sources indicate the gap could deepen further given no significant precipitation is forecast for major agricultural states over the coming days. The critical transplanting and germination period for several kharif crops coincides with this dry spell, making timely rainfall in the next two weeks especially consequential.

On the reservoir front, the Central Water Commission reported that levels in major reservoirs rose to 32.38% of total capacity — equivalent to 59.443 billion cubic metres out of 183.565 BCM — as of July 9, up from 26% of capacity just one week earlier.

The government has set a kharif foodgrain production target of 176.16 million tonnes (MT) for the season, comprising 123.15 MT of rice, 31.04 MT of maize, 13.56 MT of nutri-cereals, and 8.4 MT of pulses. For oilseeds, the target stands at 28.92 MT, broken down into 14.85 MT of soyabean and 11.35 MT of groundnut.

Given the current acreage shortfalls — particularly the 30% plunge in arhar sowing and the sharp contraction in groundnut and soyabean coverage — hitting the pulses and oilseeds targets will require a significant acceleration in planting over the remainder of the sowing window. India's structural reliance on imports for edible oils and pulses means any domestic production miss feeds directly into price pressures and the current account, making the acreage data closely watched by commodity markets and policymakers alike.