Monsoon Recovery on Track to Lift Kharif Sowing, But Acreage Still Down 20.8% YoY: ICICI Bank

India's cumulative monsoon rainfall through 6 July 2026 was 170.7 mm, sitting 20% below the long period average (LPA), according to an ICICI Bank report released on 8 July. The shortfall, however, masks a highly uneven spatial distribution across the country.

Regional breakdown:

• East & Northeast India: Most severely affected, recording a deficit of 41% below LPA.
• Northwest India: Improving, but still 19% below LPA; states like Haryana and Punjab have received below-normal rains.
• Central India: Marginally deficient at 5% below LPA; Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have seen normal rainfall.
• South India: The one bright spot, recording 15% above LPA; Tamil Nadu has logged excess precipitation.

At the sub-division level, 17 of 36 sub-divisions recorded deficient rainfall, 16 received normal rainfall, and three experienced excess precipitation. Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and Karnataka are among the states that have received below-normal rainfall, while Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Himachal Pradesh have witnessed normal rains.

The rainfall shortfall has directly weighed on planting progress. As of 5 July 2026, total kharif sowing stood at 35.1 million hectares — a significant 20.8% below the 44.3 million hectares recorded in the corresponding period last year, the ICICI Bank report noted.

The decline is concentrated in crops most sensitive to early-season moisture:

• Rice, pulses, and coarse cereals witnessed the sharpest fall in acreage.
• Sugarcane, jute, and Mesta maintained comparatively better sowing coverage, likely benefiting from their different agro-climatic requirements and geographic spread.

The lag is largely attributed to deficient rainfall in major kharif-producing states, which delayed field preparation and transplanting activity. The report nonetheless flags that monsoon activity has strengthened in recent weeks across several regions, and if this improvement is sustained, acreage is expected to recover as farmers accelerate sowing through July.

While improving rains offer some relief, reservoir levels across the country remain below optimal, a direct consequence of the delayed monsoon onset, the ICICI Bank report cautioned. This constrains irrigation availability in regions where rainfall deficits have been most acute.

However, the report takes a cautiously constructive view: improving basin-level water availability is expected to help mitigate near-term risks arising from below-normal rainfall distribution. Higher water availability, even if not yet reflected fully in reservoir storage, provides a partial buffer against the uneven monsoon.

The report also flagged the broader climate context. Despite intensifying El Niño conditions — which typically suppress Indian monsoon rainfall — actual rainfall activity has shown improvement. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in neutral territory, which the report treats as a stabilising factor. The combination of these signals underpins the report's assessment that current rainfall activity is positive for sowing.

The ICICI Bank report's central thesis is conditional but optimistic: if the recent strengthening in monsoon activity is sustained through July, the seasonal rainfall shortfall should gradually narrow, and kharif sowing should recover toward more normal levels.

July is the most critical month for kharif sowing across India's major producing belts — from the Indo-Gangetic plains to the Deccan plateau. Any further delays in states already running behind — particularly Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and Karnataka — risk compressing the effective growing season for rice and pulses, with potential yield implications.

For commodity markets, the trajectory of sowing recovery in pulses and coarse cereals over the next three to four weeks will be the most closely watched indicator, given the price sensitivity of these crops to domestic supply conditions. Reservoir levels will offer a secondary but equally important signal of whether the rabi season outlook remains intact.